Isaiah Collier: The Most Overlooked Player in the Draft
The Former 5-star recruit was once a projected lottery pick, so what led to his fall down draft boards?
Coming out of high school as a highly touted prospect, Isaiah Collier had scouts drooling over what he could bring to an NBA offense in a year's time. Collier is getting looks from the late lottery to the back half of the first round a year later. Why is that?
After a disappointing year collectively for USC, which saw the talented team miss the tournament, head coach Andy Enfield depart for SMU, and injuries across the roster, Collier's stock has somewhat plummeted from a surefire top-10 pick to a guy who is likely to be picked in the 20s.
Despite averaging 16.3 points, 4.3 assists, and 2.9 rebounds on 49.0/33.8/67.3 shooting splits for the year, Collier has caught a lot of flak for his subpar shooting and decision-making as a lead guard in a crowded USC backcourt. Collier's draft stock is falling for reasons beyond his play, but what are those reasons, and what will Collier bring to the table at the next level?
Let's jump right into what makes Isaiah Collier the most overlooked 2024 NBA Draft Prospect.
Strengths
To begin, Collier's main calling card at this stage in his development is his fantastic rim pressure. At 6'3", 205lbs, Collier is still much of the explosive athlete we saw coming out of high school, which landed him as the Class of 2023's #1 recruit and MDAAG MVP Honors. With a 30.2% usage rate this year, Collier saw the ball in his hands a lot, leading him to ample opportunities to get downhill, often unassisted, buckets. Naturally, Collier got to the free-throw line early and often due to lots of rim pressure. He averaged 5.8 FTA per game, an early indicator that Collier will positively affect the game at the next level by attacking the basket.
Collier's ability to be crafty and change speeds also benefits him in his pursuit of the basket. As a result of Collier's consistent rim pressure, passing windows began to open, highlighting his potential as a decision-maker with the ball in his hands.
Dating back to his playing with The Skill Factory on the Nike EYBL and Wheeler HS in Marietta (Ga.), Collier could always create for others. Lost in a slew of turnovers from the 19 y/o this season was an innate passing talent.
Going back to Collier's 30.2% usage rate, with the ball in his hands as much as he had the past season, you were bound to see some of his passing talent. Firstly, off the live dribble, Collier frequently hit cutters, rollers, shooters, etc., for high-quality looks for the offense. In a class lacking freshman creators, Collier stands out in my eyes, which is why his talent is being overlooked as a prospect in the class.
In the PnR, Collier has displayed an adequate feel for his roller and weakside shooter. Despite sloppiness (expected for a freshman), Collier showed what makes his passing ability so coveted for the most part over the course of the year going back to high school. Furthermore, Collier has plenty of clips from high school that cement the idea that he has a future role as a PnR playmaker.
Weaknesses
To start off, Collier's main area of improvement is his TOs. Far too often in the beginning part of the year, Collier made sloppy mistakes that led to 10+ games with 4 or more turnovers. Whether it was dribbling it off his foot, being out of control in traffic, or an inaccurate pass, these small things added up and contributed to USC's often poor offense.
Despite that, Collier saw significant improvement in the latter half of the year, taking care of the ball more, something that will have to be his calling card if he's to stick at the next level.
In addition to cleaning up his turnovers, Collier's main swing skill at the next level will be his 3-point shot. This year, Collier shot 33.8% from the floor. While this isn't an ideal number, it doesn't tell the full story. Collier shot 37% (17/46) off-the-catch for the year, hinting at initial promise as a decent shooter off-ball (keep in mind this was on low volume). On the ball is where Collier has tons of room to grow, which could enable him to tap into the upside that was shown in high school as a high-level, on-ball creator.
Collier shot sub-30% off the dribble from beyond the arc for the year, which can be attributed to average mechanics and inconsistent misses despite solid shot prep (although this mainly relates to off-the-catch).
Wrap-Up
In conclusion, Isaiah Collier's draft stock might have taken a hit due to USC's disappointing season and his struggles with turnovers and inconsistent shooting. However, his strengths—relentless rim pressure, crafty playmaking, and the potential as a PnR maestro—cannot be overlooked. With improved decision-making and off-the-dribble shooting, Collier has the tools to thrive at the next level.
While Collier's journey to the NBA has had its bumps, his talent remains undeniable. Teams willing to bet on his development could be handsomely rewarded with a dynamic guard capable of igniting an offense and creating for teammates. Look out for Isaiah Collier as a potential steal in the 2024 NBA Draft.