Nikola Topić: 2024's Future #1 Overall Pick
The Serbian Sensation: A Dominant Force in the Adriatic League, but is the #1 Pick Within Reach?
The future of Serbian basketball has arrived in the form of KK Mega Basket's Nikola Topić. A 6'7", 200lbs PG who is a youth product of Belgrade-based KK Crvena Zvezda, Topić has experienced pro ball at the highest level domestically in Serbia by way of the KLS and OKK Beograd, but this year, he's made the jump to the Adriatic league. Topić joined KK Mega Basket on loan from KK Crvena Zvezda, following a meteoric rise throughout his Summer as he took home MVP honors at both the Adidas Next Gen Tournament (He had a 49-point, 12-assist game) and FIBA U18 Euro with Serbia.
As Topić continues to develop, his elite skills as a prospect right now will rise to levels that are comparable to the likes of the Luka Dončićs of the world. Topić's passing is the primary skill that separates him from his peers despite a reasonably weak class. Topić's passing is evident through his 6.2 assists (leads the Adriatic League) in various ways, whether it's PnR or off of kickouts. Getting downhill is one of the critical aspects that allows Topić to thrive, as his quick first step allows him to put pressure on the rim at will, which is phenomenal yet challenging to decipher due to the lack of NBA-level athletes in the Adriatic League. Topić's 3-point jumper will determine his ceiling as he progresses as a player, as right now, he's shooting 31.7% on 4.5 3FG a game. For some, Topić's shot might be a bit underwhelming, but there's no lack of evidence that he can become a good shooter. Topić definitely has much to go in his development to reach the player he can become but to understand his ceiling, we must dive into what he is now. So, without further adieu, let's jump into a Nikola Topić breakdown.
Strengths
Topić is hands down the best facilitator in the 2024 class, and that's further cemented by his league-leading 6.2 assists. Topić can give it to you in a variety of ways, mainly of which is via a ball screen. He manipulates the tempo, snaking around his big men before hitting the pocket pass or throwing kick-out passes from a multitude of angles. Topić also displays his playmaking by pushing the pace, drawing multiple defenders, and regular, instinctive reads.
The passing is evident whether it is instinctive, flashy passes like the first one in the clip above or simpler, more improvisational passes à la the second pass. It cannot be overstated enough how impressive these reads are that Topić consistently makes because of the league he is doing it in. That said, about his passing, there are occasional sloppy turnovers, as there are for all guards, but it shows that he can still improve a ton as a passer, which helps you grasp more of a feel for what his ceiling may be.
Another part of the game where Topić excels is driving the basketball. As referenced earlier, Topić's lightning-quick first step combined with his ever-expanding, powerful 6'7" frame allows him to craftily finish around the hoop despite being a below-the-rim athlete. In a league like the ABA, the number of NBA-level athletes is limited, so Topić's rim pressure should be taken with a tad bit of a grain of salt, but for the most part, he checks out as one of the better driving prospects in recent draft history in terms of his efficiency as proven by his 62.4 TS%. When mentioning Topić's driving, it's also worth noting his NBA-ready handle that allows him to create separation, making it easy to get to the rim. But that's also become somewhat of a counterargument to Topić's #1 pick candidacy. Topić quickly getting to the rim has led to him being unable to display counters like a mid-range game. And when he has shown his mid-range shot, Topić has been far from his best, but there shouldn't be much concern whether or not Topić can get these wrinkles out of his game. Below are some general clips of Topić's passing, driving, and overall feel. Peep some of the threes in the video to grasp how he can shoot the three despite lacking the consistency you would ideally like to see from a player of his caliber.
Weaknesses
As mentioned above, Topić's shooting will determine his ceiling as an NBA player. So far, his shooting is just okay. And for a prospect like Topić, one would probably expect more from him, but from my perspective, Topić is right on track. Despite only shooting 31.7% from 3, Topić has shown a lot of ability to make threes albeit inefficiently. His mechanics also leave you feeling good about yourself, which is definitely a positive. Topic's 86.2% from the FT line is also another good indicator that time will do wonders for his jumper. While on loan at OKK Beograd in the KLS last season, Topić shot 36.9% from 3 of 4.3 attempts a game, although against worse competition. He's shown the ability to use the three in various ways, whether it's PnR, the catch, or isolation plays. Topić has all the makings of a league-average 3-point shooter, so this weakness should become a strength with time.
Another weakness of Topić's is his defense. For Topić, defensively, all he needs to become is a solid team defender. One could definitely argue that he is a negative defender at the moment because, in the glimpses we've seen of him guarding on-ball, Topić has struggled to keep up with some of the better athletes of the Adriatic League. As far as a team defender, Topić displays a budding IQ on that end of the floor and should only get better in rotations and such. Defense can be a struggle for Topić but should only last for so long before he becomes an adequate defender.
Wrap-Up
Nikola Topić's emergence as a standout talent with undeniable potential in the world of basketball over the last year has been incredible. His prowess as a playmaker, exemplified by his league-leading 6.2 assists in the Adriatic League, positions him as the best facilitator in the 2024 class. Topić's lightning-quick first step and NBA-ready handle make him a force when driving to the basket, showcasing an efficiency that sets him apart. Despite some questions surrounding his shooting consistency, the glimpses of three-point prowess and a solid free-throw percentage indicate that with time, Topić is on track to evolve into a league-average shooter.
While acknowledging areas for improvement, particularly on the defensive end, Topić's room to grow into a good team defender should alleviate concerns. As the NBA draft approaches, there's an undeniable buzz around this Serbian phenom, and it's not unfounded. With the proper development and continued honing of his skills, Nikola Topić could very well be the #1 overall pick come June, poised to significantly impact his future team and carve out a legacy of his own. The basketball world should keep a close eye on this rising star, as he brings a unique blend of skill and savvy that sets the stage for an exciting journey in professional basketball.